The 20-Year Opportunity: A Call to Builders
We’ve covered a lot of ground in this series. The fourth turning is a Crisis era, it’s complex terrain that is characterized by chaos, institutional decline, and uncertainty.
Yet, in all of that, this fourth turning era is a “cathedral moment” - a once-in-80-year alignment where all the pieces are in place for a renaissance in meaningful media. We’ve started a generational wealth transfer. Technology becomes more and more democratized every day. There is a cultural hunger for meaning flowing through it all.
So you, and I, have a choice. You can either chase the noise created by the deluge of content, AI, and the “end of Hollywood”, or you can build the foundations that will matter for the next two decades. What you build matters. Are you going to build a Cathedral, or are you going to build another shack?
The builders of tomorrow will be those who recognize this generational shift and act accordingly. They'll create projectsthat serve deeper human needs - stories that resonate across decades, not just trending cycles. They'll invest in craft over quick wins.
This is our moment to build the future we want to live in tomorrow.
The Historical Pattern Points Forward
An important principle to remember is that the fourth turning always ends in renewal. The Crisis era is followed by a High. Every previous Fourth Turning (1930s-40s, 1860s-70s, 1770s-80s) ended with new institutions, new cultural foundations, and new systems.
The pattern isn’t one of collapse. It’s creative destruction, followed by intentional rebuilding. The goal in this moment isn’t to merely survive the crisis. It’s to “build during the storm”, positioning yourself and your business for the renaissance that will follow.
The next 20 years will determine which stories and storytellers will shape the culture. That’s why I’ve spent these past few months writing about this fourth turning concept.
If the pattern repeats itself, we have another 3-5 years before this crisis era ends. The next 20-year turning of the 2030s and 2040s will be the golden age of meaningful media.
Every post-Crisis era produces a cultural flowering where new creators, new storytellers, and new generations take center stage. The years following World War II gave us the greatest generation of American filmmakers who helped build the Hollywood system in the 30s and 40s - Howard Hawks, John Ford, Billy Wilder, and Frank Capra. Their films inspired the post-war boomer generation of filmmakers like Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese, Francis Ford Coppola, and George Lucas.
Prior to that, the post-civil war era gave us the foundations of American literature and theater.
In the coming era, we’ll see digital democratization meet generational purpose seeking, as jobs are upended and made obsolete, creativity can be outsourced to AI, and a new generation grapples with identity and purpose.
This moment is different for a few reasons:
- Technology: For the first time in history, you can build a media empire without asking permission from gatekeepers. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, the creators of ChatGPT, shared that his friend group has a standing bet that we’ll soon see a one-person, billion-dollar company.
- Capital: The great wealth transfer means money is looking for meaning-driven investments
- Audience: Multiple generations are hungry for stories that help them understand their place in the pattern and make sense of this uncertain time.
Positioning Yourself for the Renaissance
Let’s start with investors who are either currently investing in film and media, as well as those that are considering investing in this space.
The shift is to think like Carnegie, not like Vegas.
Carnegie didn't just invest in steel. He owned the mines, the railroads, the foundries, and the distribution. He built an entire ecosystem he could control. When you invest in film, don't just fund individual projects like placing chips on a roulette table. Build the ecosystem: own the IP, control distribution, develop talent pipelines, create libraries that compound value over decades.
Vegas is all about gambling. Placing bets, hoping the odds end up in your favor. Those days are over. AI has already won that bet before the game has even started - AI generated films will be able to place more bets with less risk in a month than you’ll be able to in a lifetime. But will they resonate? Will they help people understand this current era?
You also have an advantage over publicly-traded studios who have to chase quarterly returns. You can invest in libraries that connect with audiences and will matter for decades.
It’s essential to understand the principles we’ve covered in this series, especially around generational wealth strategy. Boomers want to preserve legacy through meaningful media. Gen X is all about pragmatic value creation in undervalued markets. Millennials are a purpose-driven collective investment, and Gen Z are digital natives. Understanding which generation you’re speaking to and which you’re serving will set you apart from your competitors.
For filmmakers, your mission is about finding your role in the pattern:
- Boomers (60s-80s): You are the wisdom keepers and legacy builders. Document, mentor, and fund the new generation of filmmakers.
- Gen X (40s-60s): The bridge builders. You can help translate between old and new systems and build the new infrastructure for this amazing industry.
- Millennials (20s-40s): You are the new institution builders. Create the new stories that will resonate across generations.
- Gen Z (teens-20s): You are the inheritors. Learn, adapt, and prepare to carry forward
Every film you make going forward is either cultural infrastructure (Cathedral) or cultural debris (Shack). Which do you want to build? Decide now, and stand firm in that decision. You must think of the long arc spanning the next 25 years. You’re building as much for your children’s children, not just your salary this year.
In a world of moral confusion like what we’re seeing today, storytellers who stand for something will rise above the noise, connect with a passionate audience, and establish their legacy.
A Practical 20-Year Vision
So, what do we do with all of this new information? It must turn into action and execution if we want it to have any impact. Here’s how I see it, based on my reading of The Fourth Turning and The Fourth Turning Is Here:
The Next Five Years (2024-2029): Foundation Building
- For Investors: Identify filmmakers with clear moral visions and stewardship mindsets
- For Filmmakers: Build your first profitable systems, prove your model, establish your voice
- The Partnership: Values-aligned capital meeting purpose-driven creativity
The Following Decade (2030-2040): The Renaissance
- Cultural Leadership: The filmmakers and investors who built during the crisis become the cultural leaders of the renewal
- Institutional Creation: New distribution systems, new funding models, new creative collectives
- Global Influence: American independent film becomes the model for meaningful media worldwide
The Long View (2040+): Legacy
- Generational Impact: The stories you tell today shape how the next generation understands the world
- Cultural Inheritance: The institutions you build become the foundation for the next cycle
Your Call to Action
We are in a once-in-80-year moment. The time to decide and to take action has arrived. Don’t let it pass you by:
- Boomers: Invest your legacy in stories that will outlast you
- Gen X: Use your pragmatic leadership to bridge the old and new systems
- Millennials: Channel your collaborative energy into building new creative institutions
- Gen Z: Prepare to inherit and adapt the foundations being built now
We must stop chasing trends, and instead build structures that endure. Stop seeking validation, seek effectiveness in service of the future. Stop thinking quarterly, think generationally.
If you want to build a cathedral, don't build for applause today. Build for the generations to come. The filmmakers and investors who understand this moment will shape the next 80 years of culture, so the question isn't whether you'll participate in this transformation, it's whether you'll help lead it.
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