2025's Chaos Isn't Random. It's Right On Schedule.

What feels like unprecedented chaos in 2025 actually follows a predictable pattern.

For months, I had been trying to make sense of the accelerating chaos around us. Each day seemed to bring more institutional collapse, more uncertainty, more evidence that things were unraveling at an alarming rate. I found myself asking: Is this just going to keep getting worse forever?

Then I encountered Neil Howe on a podcast, discussing a framework that changed everything for me. I went down the research rabbit hole, and what I discovered was both sobering and deeply hopeful.

Every 80-100 years, our society goes through the same cycle of growth, questioning, decay, and crisis. This isn't just theory. It's a documented map of how societies transform and renew themselves. Authors William Strauss and Neil Howe revealed this pattern in their book The Fourth Turning, showing how it has shaped America's destiny time and time again.

What hit me hardest was realizing that while most people see time as linear—assuming things will just continue getting worse—history actually moves in cycles. Yes, we're heading into more chaos before this is over, but that chaos is necessary for renewal. The storm always passes. Spring always follows winter.

This insight transformed my outlook. If I could understand the pattern, anticipate what's coming, and build during the storm, I could position myself and help others prepare for leadership in the coming era of renewal.

For those of us creating media and building businesses right now, understanding this pattern isn't just interesting, it's essential. Each generation is experiencing this moment differently, and that shapes how we create, how we collaborate, and how we build during this critical time.

To make sense of our current moment, we need to understand these historical cycles, known as the Four Turnings.

Each cycle begins with a High, a period of optimism and unity as society rebuilds after a major crisis. The “second turning” is called the Awakening, where the mood shifts to restlessness and even rebellion because people are seeking personal meaning. The third turning is called the Unraveling, full of cynicism and distrust where individualism rises and culture fragments. Lastly, you have the fourth turning—our current reality, a period called the Crisis, where chaos and conflict rule, old systems collapse, and often end in a literal crisis. However, from this collapse, a new order is born, and society experiences a rebirth, beginning a new High of the first turning. 

This pattern manifests differently across generations depending on which cycle we’re in. As we’re currently in a crisis:

• The Silent Generation (born 1925-1942) are in their final years, offering wisdom from past cycles.
• Baby Boomers (now in their 70s and 80s) feel the institutions they built crumbling, are taking on elder leadership roles, guiding society through upheaval
• Generation X (in their 40s-50s) were raised to be independent and resilient, precisely what's needed now
• Millennials (in their 30s-40s) feel uniquely called to rebuild
• Gen Z is coming of age during this crisis, shaping their worldview forever
• Gen A is growing up in a world already transformed by crisis, adapting to rapid technological and social changes. Unlike previous generations, they'll inherit the solutions and systems created during this fourth turning.

Understanding this pattern doesn't just provide historical context—it gives you a strategic advantage. By the end of this chapter, you'll understand how to see the current chaos not as random disruption, but as a predictable phase that precedes renewal. This perspective will allow you to make decisions today that position you to thrive both during the crisis and in the coming High.

That’s what happens to society, but what’s interesting is when you map what happens to institutions across these four periods. In the High, institutions are strong. In the Awakening, institutions are questioned. In the Unraveling, institutions weaken, and in the Crisis, these institutions collapse. 

For those of us in the media and entertainment industry, we're seeing this play out in real time. The institutions that have dominated Hollywood for a century are being fundamentally transformed.

We’re living through a fourth turning that began around 2007/8, starting with the Great Financial Crisis and, for us filmmakers, the Writers Strike. You couldn’t ask for clearer examples of institutions unraveling and collapsing. 

As author Neil Howe published in 2023, The Fourth Turning Is Here. We’re living through it now, and it’s only going to get worse before it gets better. 

Just yesterday, as I write this, President Trump announced plans to implement a 100% tariff on foreign-made films imported into the United States—another seismic shock to an already destabilized industry. Every day brings new uncertainty, new collapses, new attempts to shore up failing institutions.

But we've been here before. During the last Fourth Turning Crisis (1929-1946), Hollywood faced similar existential challenges. The Great Depression threatened to destroy the film industry entirely, yet somehow, movies thrived. While banks were failing and unemployment soared, weekly movie attendance actually increased. 

This period saw the rise of independent producers like David O. Selznick and Walt Disney, who recognized that institutional chaos created opportunity. While the major studios were paralyzed by debt and old thinking, these independent creators innovated. Selznick produced Gone with the Wind independently, revolutionizing how films could be financed and distributed. Disney saw the potential in new technology, producing the first feature-length animated film, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, when everyone said it couldn't be done.

The chaos of the Crisis period actually enabled more experimentation, not less. New genres emerged. Film noir, born in the shadows of the Depression and War, gave audiences a way to process their darkest fears. The screwball comedy, epitomized by films like It Happened One Night, helped Americans laugh at class divisions and social upheaval. Independent creators, free from institutional constraints, were often the ones pushing these boundaries.

The studios adapted, creating new formats like double features to give audiences more value. They invested in technological innovations like sound and Technicolor. Most importantly, they told stories that helped people make sense of the chaos around them.

History shows us that each Crisis eventually gives way to a new High, a period of rebuilding, optimism, and cultural renewal. If the pattern holds, the 2030s and 2040s should usher in exactly such an era. But first, we need to understand where we are in the current cycle.

The current cycle began in 1946 after WWII, with the High extending to 1963 when JFK was killed. The Awakening spanned the 60s and 70s through to the mid-eighties, the Unraveling was from 1984-2008, institutions weakened and society started to fragment, and we’re now deeply in the Crisis. There are global and institutional crises occurring almost daily, and over the next five years or so we can expect more instability and upheaval. 

The old systems will continue to break down, but new opportunities will emerge for those prepared to adapt. The entertainment industry will likely see further consolidation, technological disruption, and shifting audience behaviors. 

But for those that seek to anticipate what’s coming so they can prepare and be better positioned in the future, the writing of Strauss and Howe give us the map, the blueprint, the guidance we need to survive and thrive. Just as in previous Crisis periods, creative innovation will flourish. Those who understand this pattern can position themselves in the coming High of the 2030s.

Understanding this pattern changes everything. Instead of being paralyzed by chaos, you can use it as a map:

The next five years will bring peak instability in markets, politics, and culture. But that's not a reason to despair. It's your signal to prepare. While others panic, you can focus on building your lifeboat, strengthening your foundations, and positioning yourself for what comes next.

Because after every Crisis comes a High. Those who understand this pattern now will be the ones building new institutions in the 2030s. For us Gen-X and Millennials, it will be our time to lead the renewal, and the best period of time we’ve ever experienced in our lifetimes. I can't wait.

For creators and builders, this isn't just about surviving the chaos - it's about understanding our role in shaping what comes next. The stories we tell and the cultural infrastructure we build during this period will form the foundation of the next High.

Throughout this series, we'll explore exactly how to navigate this Fourth Turning as a creator. You'll learn specific strategies for building during crisis, finding opportunity in institutional collapse, and creating work that resonates deeply in this moment. More importantly, you'll discover how to position yourself not just to survive the next five years, but to emerge as a leader in the new era that follows.

The chaos isn't random. It's right on schedule. And now that you understand the pattern, you can move forward with both clarity and purpose.

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