The Return of Meaningful Media
In early 2025, we experienced two very different movies with two very different outcomes. Netflix’s The Electric State landed with a thud despite its $300M+ budget, A-list cast, and proven directors. Critics panned it, the audience response was lukewarm, and the movie wasn’t good. It exemplified the fading formula: big stars + big budget = audience appeal.
Contrast that with Sinners, Ryan Coogler’s deeply personal passion project. He wrote the screenplay on spec—meaning he wasn’t paid upfront. This was key for his goal all along: ownership of the film. The resulting work was singular in vision and execution. The leverage he created resonated with the audience: massive box office numbers and passionate fans supporting it for weeks (as of this writing, it’s in its 8th weekend and still in the top ten).
This film had meaningful layers for investors: a compelling story, authentic filmmaker connection, strategic ownership structure, and technical mastery, shown in a viral 10-minute IMAX vignette with millions of views.
As institutions crumble and chaos reigns in this Fourth Turning, audiences crave substance over spectacle. History shows crisis eras drive demand for deeper meaning.
The Death of Empty Entertainment
Since the early years of this fourth turning, we’ve seen big-budget spectacle flops. The numbers tell a stark story: John Carter (2012) lost over $200M for Disney on a $250M+ investment. Recently, Mickey 17’s $120M investment yielded a mere $131M worldwide return in 2025. Studios now require $400M box offices to break even—up from $300M a decade ago.
The urgency to spend, spend, spend and try to buy a big box office is due to streaming’s commoditization ofentertainment, which stripped out all of the profit in the process. With less post-theatrical profit, studios adopt a “go big or go home” approach to theatrical releases. This approach is failing:
2024: Joker: Folie à Deux, Kraven the Hunter, Borderlands, Madame Web, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
2023: The Marvels, The Flash, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Wish, Haunted Mansion
Many losing their studios $100-200M.
The list keeps growing and the flops keep increasing. There’s a generational shift in audience values towards meaningful movies and resonant stories made by relatable people. As producers, we’re investing more in indie film to ensure ROI alongside stories that resonate.
The Hunger for Meaning
The Fourth Turning explains how each generation defines “meaningful.”
Boomers value legacy and wisdom-sharing. Example: The King’s Speech. ($15M budget, $414M box office)
They take their kids and grandkids to the movies to teach them values. They share Facebook posts highlighting this “right” way to live. They mean well, but it often falls flat or causes contention because the younger-generation recipients feel attacked.
Gen X values truth-telling and authenticity. Example: Spotlight. ($20M budget, $98M box office)
They see through facades and call out hypocrisy. This generation pioneered grunge music, indie films, and a DIY aesthetic valuing raw honesty over polished perfection. Movies resonating with Gen X tend to be gritty, realistic dramas exposing uncomfortable truths about society and human nature, like Fight Club, The Matrix, and recent ones like Oppenheimer that challenge institutional narratives.
Millennials value social impact and collective meaning. Example: Get Out. ($4.5M budget, $255M box office)
They seek films and media that address systemic issues, social justice, and collective action. This generation resonates with works like "Don't Look Up" that combine entertainment with social commentary. Whether tackling climate change, wealth inequality, or racial justice, Millennial audiences want purposeful media aligned with their values. They're drawn to stories that demonstrate how individual actions can spark societal change.
For Gen Z, stories highlighting personal identity and cultural rebuilding resonate. Example: Barbie. ($145M budget, $1.4B box office) ***This isn’t an indie, but when the biggest movie of the year does 10X its budget, that’s remarkable! Plus, Greta Gerwig is an indie filmmaker at heart ;)
They prefer narratives exploring self-discovery, gender identity, and cultural authenticity. Films like Everything Everywhere All at Once and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse resonate with this generation by blending personal stories with broader themes of multiverse exploration and identity. Gen Z seeks content that acknowledges their struggles while offering hope for rebuilding society in more inclusive, sustainable ways that honor diverse perspectives and experiences.
Ignoring these inherent values leads to stories and films that fall flat for audiences who can’t see themselves in the story. They cancel pre-purchased tickets for movies like Madame Web because the reviews revealed it isn’t what they expected.
Surface-level spectacle doesn’t cut it anymore. It worked decades ago, when you’d “never seen anything like that before” on screen. Now, the only way to differentiate—and resonate—is through story.
The Investment Case
Let's talk numbers. 2023's breakout indie hit, Sound of Freedom, turned a $14M investment into $180M+ domestic box office—a 12.8X return. This was driven by meaningful storytelling that resonated with audiences searching for substance.
This isn't an isolated case. Meaning-driven content consistently delivers superior unit economics:
- Sound of Freedom: 12.8X ROI
- Get Out: 56.6X ROI ($4.5M → $255M)
- Parasite: 23.5X ROI ($11M → $258M)
Why do these films outperform? Three key factors:
- Word-of-mouth marketing reduces P&A costs.
- Higher repeat viewings drive sustained box office.
- Cultural relevance creates valuable long-term IP.
Meaning-driven content creates more valuable long-term IP because audiences form deeper emotional connections beyond the initial viewing. When viewers connect with a story's themes and messages, they are more likely to become brand ambassadors, sharing and celebrating the content across platforms. This organic advocacy reduces marketing costs while creating a self-sustaining fan engagement ecosystem.
This trend will accelerate through the rest of this Fourth Turning as audiences reject empty spectacle for substance. This creates a unique opportunity for investors: lower capital requirements, better risk-adjusted returns, and potential outsized profits through strategic IP ownership.
The math is compelling: while studio tentpoles require $400M+ box office to break even, meaning-driven films can achieve profitability at a fraction of that. This asymmetric bet—lower downside risk with higher upside potential—represents the future of film investment.
The Fourth Turning
History shows Fourth Turnings create unprecedented opportunities for meaning-makers. During the Great Depression and World War II—our last Fourth Turning—films like "It's a Wonderful Life" and "Casablanca" didn't just entertain; they helped audiences process social transformation. They became cultural touchstones, generating returns for decades through re-releases, TV rights, and merchandising.
Today, we're at a similar inflection point. The market signals meaning-driven films outperforming pure entertainment, even with smaller budgets. Strong IP creates multi-generational value, while audiences reject superficial spectacle. This creates a unique window for investors who recognize the shift.
Investors can back filmmakers who understand this generational transformation. The most successful projects will come from creators with genuine connections to their material, whose stories align with generational values and resonate beyond their initial release. Teams that prioritize ownership and IP creation will generate the greatest long-term value.
For filmmakers, your vision matters more than ever. But vision alone isn't enough. Success requires understanding your target generation while building meaningful IP that you own. The key is structuring deals that align investor interests with storytelling, creating authentic content that serves audience needs beyond entertainment.
The next decade will see massive wealth transfer and cultural transformation. The winners will combine meaning with mechanics—authentic storytelling with smart business structure. That's the opportunity of this Fourth Turning.
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Daren Smith
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