13 May 2025 5 min read

The 80-Year Rhythm of History

For filmmakers and investors navigating today's complex market, understanding generational dynamics is crucial. This second chapter explores how different generations shape crisis periods - knowledge that can help you better position your projects and identify emerging opportunities.

Building on our understanding of the four turnings, let's examine the archetypal roles that drive these historical cycles.

For this installment, we want to understand:

the four generational archetypes
How they shaped previous Fourth Turnings
The great depression/wwII as a case study
And each generation’s role during a crisis era

Buckle up, we’ve got a lot to cover!

How Generations Shaped Previous Fourth Turnings

Each turning produces a distinct generational archetype:

The generation born during a High are called "Prophets", because they emerge during a post-crisis era of renewal and social progress. They're idealistic visionaries who challenge institutions during their young adulthood. In entertainment, Prophet generations typically drive sweeping changes in content themes and distribution models.

The generation born during an Awakening are called "Nomads", as they grow up during a time of social upheaval and institutional decay. They become the pragmatic, survivalist leaders during the next Crisis. Nomad generations excel at creating lean, sustainable business models that weather industry transformation.

The generation born during an Unraveling are called "Heroes", because they come of age during a Crisis and become the heroic young adults who fight and sacrifice during wartime or societal upheaval. Hero generations often pioneer technologies and platforms that rebuild entertainment infrastructure.

The generation born during a Crisis are called "Artists", as they emerge into a world being rebuilt and shaped by their elders. They become adaptive, consensus-building diplomats in their adult years. Artist generations frequently create cross-platform content that bridges different audience segments.

Mapping the previous cycle of the four Turnings, you have Prophets born 1860-1882, the “Missionary” generation, who became the elder leaders and moralists during the last Crisis era. The Nomads were the “Lost” generation (1883-1900), who became the pragmatic, tough-minded commanders. The Heroes were the G.I. Generation (1901-1924), who fought in World War II. Finally, the Silent Generation (1925-1942) were the Artists, coming of age during the Crisis but too young to fight, instead becoming the post-war mediators and diplomats who helped rebuild society.

In our current cycle, we have the Baby Boomers born 1946-1964 who were born during the High, Generation X (1965-1980) born during the Awakening, Millennials (1981-1996) born during the Unraveling, and Generation Z (1997-2012) and Generation Alpha (2012-2024) born during our current Crisis.

Each of these generations mirrors their archetype from the previous cycle and shape the current Crisis accordingly: Boomers as Prophets leading with vision, Gen X as pragmatic Nomads, Millennials as the Hero generation coming of age during crisis, and Gen Z as the Artists emerging into a transforming world.

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From Depression to Domination: How the Last Crisis Reshaped Hollywood

The Fourth Turning of 1929-1946 provides a clear example of how these archetypes interact during crisis. During this period, each archetype had a distinct role:

Prophets (the Missionary Generation) provided moral leadership and vision during the Great Depression and WWII. As elder statesmen like FDR, they helped guide the nation through unprecedented challenges. Similarly, today's Boomer executives hold significant influence over legacy media companies facing digital disruption.
The Lost Generation (Nomads) served as military commanders and practical problem-solvers. They brought their street-smart resilience and pragmatic leadership to the battlefield, with generals like Patton exemplifying their tough, no-nonsense approach. Today's Gen X producers and executives excel at navigating uncertain financing landscapes with resourcefulness.
The G.I. Generation (Heroes) became the young soldiers who stormed the beaches of Normandy and fought across the Pacific. Like Millennials today who are building new streaming platforms and production models. Just as Gen Z is currently creating content that bridges traditional and emerging media.
Meanwhile, the Silent Generation (Artists) were too young to fight but witnessed the transformation of society.

This pattern is repeating in our current Crisis era, which began with the 2008 Financial Crisis. While we aren’t (yet) involved in a war, we can see how each generation shows up and contributes. As I was studying this, it was interesting to learn that the archetypes don’t cause the crisis, but the crisis era creates the opportunities for the different archetypes to play their different roles to the fullest.

We can see these archetypes playing out in today's leadership. Consider how Silent Generation leaders (Artists) like Biden tend to seek consensus and institutional stability, while early Boomer leaders (Prophets) like Trump tend to challenge institutions and promote ideological transformation. These different approaches reflect their generational archetypes and influence how they respond to crisis.

Follow the Money: Where Each Generation Will Create Value in Today's Crisis

Each generation will show up and contribute differently to this turning. Prophets (Boomers) will provide moral guidance and ideological leadership, often dividing into opposing camps with strong convictions. Nomads (Gen X) become the practical leaders who make tough decisions and maintain stability. Heroes (Millennials) emerge as the dynamic young adults ready to rebuild institutions and fight for change. Artists (Gen Z) adapt to the transforming world, developing skills to navigate uncertainty while mediating between older generations' conflicting visions.

For those in the entertainment industry, these generational dynamics create specific opportunities:

Gen X producers and investors: Your pragmatic leadership is crucial now. Focus on sustainable business models and strategic risk management while others chase trends. Opportunity: Mid-budget productions with proven creative teams that can deliver reliable returns.
Millennial creators: Your generation's drive to rebuild institutions puts you in a unique position. Consider how your projects can address the transformation of media consumption and distribution. Opportunity: Technologies and platforms that streamline production and distribution, especially those reducing barriers between creators and audiences.
Gen Z filmmakers: Your ability to adapt quickly to new platforms and bridge different audiences makes you valuable partners for established production companies. Opportunity: Cross-platform content that can reach fragmented audiences through multiple channels simultaneously.
Boomer industry veterans: Your experience and vision remain vital - especially in mentoring younger generations through this industry transformation. Opportunity: Intellectual property with multi-generational appeal that can be reimagined for new platforms.

History may not tell us exactly which studio will triumph or which technology will dominate, but it reveals something far more valuable: which generation will lead the rebuilding, which will provide the vision, and which will create the practical solutions. The smartest money in Hollywood isn't betting against this 80-year rhythm—it's riding the wave.

For filmmakers specifically, recognizing these patterns provides a framework for identifying which business models and content strategies are likeliest to succeed as we progress through this Fourth Turning. As we navigate this Crisis era, those who align their businesses with these generational dynamics will be better positioned to succeed.

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